[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 8N15W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W INT0
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
8N-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE N GULF IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND HAS
LOST ITS UPPER SUPPORT. AT 15/0300 UTC THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
1017 MB LOW JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO
28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE
W GULF TO NEAR 27N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT E OF 87W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS ALONG 86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N W OF
94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC OVER THE E GULF S OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH E OF BERMUDA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 93W TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT IN THEN NE GULF WILL EXIT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
WED NIGHT REACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO NE MEXICO THU THEN STALL
FROM N FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO FRI AND SAT. A SURFACE LOW
WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE NW GULF ON SAT THEN QUICKLY
MOVE TO FAR W FLORIDA LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE
SE CONUS ON SUN WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
SW NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN EXITING THE GULF SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE HAS DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N79W TO 20N66W
INCLUDING JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA WITH
THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING N TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST E OF
BERMUDA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS WSW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
WEAK 1020 MB LOW NEAR 32N43W ALONG 29N46W TO 26N51W WHERE IT
MEANDERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 23N59W TO N OF THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR 19N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM 31N33W TO 26N36W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A SECOND NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTEND INTO THE E ATLC
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING S ALONG 25W GIVING THE AREA
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N58W TO 12N56W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THESE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
SE WED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY
FRI REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 29N69W AND STATIONARY TO
DAYTONA BEACH ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N SUN AS
SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OFF
THE SE CONUS WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO W CUBA BY LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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