[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W CONTINUING ALONG 5N18W 3N22W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 3N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 24W EXTENDING TO
BRAZIL ALONG 2S30W 1S36W 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 11W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. DESPITE THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DRAPING SW TO NEAR 26N91W BECOMING STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING
TO 27N96W...AS OF 2100 UTC. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTING SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN FLORIDA N OF 29N. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BESIDES JUST
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO WHERE THERE IS SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 94W. MAINLY S-SW FLOW COVERS THE
ERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE W ATLC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN OSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE SE AND NW GULF. DUE TO THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING RETURN FLOW
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF
THE TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM N OF PANAMA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SE CONUS.. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR
ALOFT...BESIDES THE FAR NW CORNER...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A SHEAR
AXIS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
NRN CARIBBEAN FROM JUST E OF PUERTO RICO TO S OF THE MONA
PASSAGE ALONG 18N65W 16N70W 16N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
THE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15 KTS WITH
SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE SHEAR
AXIS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGHS NEAR 32N65W AND 34N57W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE SW N ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 47W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W TO 24N57W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W AND TRANSITIONS
INTO A SHEAR AXIS IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
FARTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N31W TO 28N37W
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A SURFACE HIGH
WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 37W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ REGION ACROSS W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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