[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W ALONG
3N38W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AROUND A
1037 MB HIGH OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WITH NE
WINDS ACROSS THE ERN GULF BECOMING ELY ACROSS THE WRN GULF. DUE
TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN...WINDS OF 20-25
KTS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
CONVERGING AGAINST THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 94W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA
E OF 94W WITH CLEAR SKIES E OF 84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY WLY FLOW OVER THE
GULF. SOME MOISTURE IS PRESENT ALOFT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR WRN GULF DUE TO CONVERGING WINDS
ALONG THE COASTLINE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W TO 18N76W WHERE
IT BECOMES DISSIPATING TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W 15N89W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING INTO THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRADEWIND
FLOW OF ABOUT 10 KTS. STRONGER WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO ACROSS NICARAGUA AND THE WATERS TO THE E. ALOFT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE MOISTURE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE FRONT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AS
THE PORTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO STALL OUT AND CONTINUES
DISSIPATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W CONTINUING SW TO HAITI
ALONG 25N66W 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS S OF 24N. STRONG WINDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NOTED BOTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 29N...AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N38W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 42N45W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR
39N30W TO NEAR 18N47W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
THE ITCZ REGION ACROSS W AFRICA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON








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