[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE
IVORY COAST FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 5W-7W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STRONG 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS
NEAR 35N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF
95W. 20-25 KT N-NE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE
30'S OVER THE N GULF STATES WITH 40'S AND 50'S OVER MOST OF THE
N GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SE TO S
GEORGIA AND BRING ABOUT WARMER E-SE FLOW OVER THE GULF. RETURN
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO N HONDURAS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE E
CUBA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT
WHILE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE E TO HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM
HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W.SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BOTH E
AND W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N60W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N50W TO HISPANIOLA WITH
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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