[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13 ALONG 4N18W TO 3N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 1N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF BOTH THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE BASIN IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND
NW CARIBBEAN. THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE FAR WRN
GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 93W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT
PASS INDICATE N-NE WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
KT ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...CARRYING MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE
ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC TO ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. STRONG
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH OVER NE KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG WINDS REMAINING
THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E...SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WATERS ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 20N77W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. NIGHT VISION
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED LOW-TOP SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTICED OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N W
OF 78W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVEALED NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE RELAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINING EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD WITH A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
SUPPORTING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N63W 25N70W
TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH
EASTERN CUBA ALONG 20N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N W OF 70W...AS
WELL AS WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N WITH SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO
15 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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