[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 5N17W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES 1N24W 2N31W 1N36W TO 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 25W-38W AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER
THE N CONUS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER N MISSISSIPPI.
THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E SURFACE FLOW.
THE SURFACE FLOW CONVERGING WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING
DENSE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF
92W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING W OVER THE
E/CENTRAL GULF LEAVING THE SKIES OVER THE E GULF MOSTLY CLEAR.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE W GULF LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE N GULF
THROUGH TUE BEFORE STALLING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N ON WED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THU
EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO BY THU AFTERNOON AND
SHIFTING E OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE W ATLC OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE TI BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
SW HAITI NEAR 18N74W JUST E OF JAMAICA TO NE HONDURAS NEAR
15N84W. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COLOMBIA
TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THEN TURNS N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE E
CARIBBEAN BY TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING SW ALONG
25N65W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 22N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO 80W. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY
A 1032 MB HIGH OVER N MISSISSIPPI. A SECOND BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W
ALONG 23N43W TO 12N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 30N35W TO
BEYOND 32N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W SW
TO 21N61W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC MON
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE AND DISSIPATE BY TUE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER
THE NW ATLC TUE. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE W ATLC N
OF 28N WED AND THU. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA
COAST FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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