[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W AND THEN ALONG 01S TO 47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 01N-04N BETWEEN 09W-12W...AND S
OF 04N BETWEEN 18W-28W...AND S OF 02N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARILY WESTERLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN
PANAMA. AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NE OF THE AREA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A COLD
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ANALYZED FROM THE
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W TO 22N90W TO 22N95W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE OVERCAST SKIES NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY S OF 25N W OF 90W. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BASIN BY LATER THIS EVENING...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A STRONG 1046 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE IN OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF WITH N-NE WINDS
REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THEN
VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION INFLUENCES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER EASTERN PANAMA NEAR
09N78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOSTLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL E OF 80W WITH INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING SE OF THE FRONT NW OF A LINE FROM 22N81W TO 16N87W IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W TO 16N80W TO 13N83W. AS THE
FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN BY LATER THIS EVENING...NE WINDS ARE
FORECAST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WHILE THE TRADES EAST OF
THE FRONT REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAKER DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES TO A SHEAR LINE...HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THAT SUPPORTS A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 32N73W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W TO THE UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 33N67W TO 30N56W. A STRONG MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF
24N AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-74W. GALE FORCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO ABSORB ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS EMERGED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 33N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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