[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES S CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-30W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO JUST OF
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 8W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE E CONUS AND N GULF EXTENDING INTO
THE W ATLC MOVING RAPIDLY AND SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT THAT AT 11/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN
VERO BEACH TO NAPLES ALONG 23N87W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE
OF THE FRONT E OF 86W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM NE OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 26N TO THE FRONT W OF 90W. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT
OVER LOUISIANA IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE GULF WATERS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE SE GULF ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP OVER THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF BY LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS
THE NW COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N WED
AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
PRIMARY AXIS ALONG 75W AND EXTENDING OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 65W TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED
INTO THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT
11/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERO
BEACH. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N75W ACROSS
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 24N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA TO OVER THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR ORLANDO
FLORIDA SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 11/0900 UTC EXTENDS
FROM 32N79W TO OVER DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO JUST S OF TAMPA
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH S OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W
OF A LINE FROM 23N78W ALONG 28N71W TO BEYOND BERMUDA AND E OF
THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N55W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION DRAPING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W TO 29N61W WHERE IT
BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N72W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N21W SW ALONG 21N37W INTO THE TROPICS
TO 8N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N38W TO 24N71W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
LATER TODAY. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH N WATERS
TONIGHT AND CATCH UP WITH THE ABOVE FRONT FROM 32N70W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ON
MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF TUE AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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