[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM OVER
THE E CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING RAPIDLY
FROM E TENNESSEE TO TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA
NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY ALONG 25N88W TO JUST S OF TAMPICO
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF
THE FRONT E OF 88W WITH LIGHT RAIN N OF THE FRONT E OF 88W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER N LOUISIANA/AND E
TEXAS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS BUT WILL
EMERGE INTO THE NW ATLC ON SAT NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SE GULF ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL
RACE OUT OF THE GULF LATER TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP OVER THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF BY LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS
THE NW COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N WED
AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
PRIMARY AXIS ALONG 75W AND EXTENDING OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-64W
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADES WINDS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
AROUND SUNRISE TODAY THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO
HONDURAS MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT THAT AT 11/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE
COAST NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ALONG 32N79W ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR 26N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 75W
TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N50W.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W TO 30N59W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N65W TO 28N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 61W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W SW ALONG 22N40W INTO THE TROPICS TO
7N53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM S OF THE AZORES AND A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N65W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL LIFT N TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR W ATLC. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SAT. THE REINFORCING
FRONT OVER THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE THROUGH NW ATLC SAT NIGHT
BEFORE CATCHING UP WITH THE ABOVE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
E OF BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN THEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN SET UP
OVER THE W ATLC TUE AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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