[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 3N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N23W
ALONG 1N36W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN S OF 28N
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ALSO COVER MOST OF THE BASIN S OF 28N IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSH SE OF THE AREA. THE MOST DENSE
CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THIS AREA S OF 24N W OF 95W. COLD AIR
AND STRONG N-NE WINDS REMAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AND 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1046 MB HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG
WINDS REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E
RETURN FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W CONTINUING TO 17N93W...AS OF 2100
UTC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF PANAMA. CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. BESIDES NEAR THE
FRONT...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN
WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO DRIFT SE BEFORE STALLING AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WRN ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE ERN SIDE OF IT OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM IT INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N70W 25N76W 23N79W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF 28N BECOMING STORM FORCE N OF THE AREA. STRONG NE WINDS ARE
ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING UP TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE 35
KTS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
31N35W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE ATLC
ALONG 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING
FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N39W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE ITCZ REGION ACROSS W
AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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