[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF GIVING THE AREA
SW WINDS ALOFT AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MOST
OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER W TENNESSEE. A 1015 MB SURFACE
LOW IS IN THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 21N94W AT 10/0300 UTC. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA TO
22N87W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF NW OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA
FLORIDA ALONG 23N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT N
BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO N GULF FRI
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT AND OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS
ALONG 75W AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC
DRAWING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF
85W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE E MAINTAINING THE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
BY LATE SAT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVER E CUBA TO NE YUCATAN BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA NE TO BEYOND 32N52W. SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE NW ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER E TENNESSEE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION AT 10/0300 UTC NEAR 32N61W TO 27N71W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND DISSIPATING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
THE FRONT TO 32N AND INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N25W SW ALONG 22N37W INTO THE TROPICS TO 7N55W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1034 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N64W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SURFACE RIDGE AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE FRI. A SECOND FRONT
EMERGES OFF NE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO S
FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY
SUN MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE MON/EARLY TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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