[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W TO 5N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 2N30W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 11W-20W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N84W. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE W GULF
OF MEXICO W OF 90W. FURTHER E...A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE GULF N OF THE FRONT
AND N OF THE LOW HAS 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS. IN CONTRAST IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...90-110 KT SW WINDS ARE NOTED. EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW IN 24 HOURS TO MOVE N TO 26N93W WITH CONTINUED RAIN
AND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN
WEAK AND DRIFT N TO 24N WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-70W MOVING W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER CUBA...AND THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 58W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N21W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH TO 27N60W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A THICK
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST OFF WEST AFRICA E OF 35W FROM 10N-25N
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO DRIFT N OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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