[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101138
TWDAT

 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N22W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S41W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 1N2W TO 2N10W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
10W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF GIVING THE AREA
SW WINDS ALOFT AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MOST
OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A 1015 MB
SURFACE LOW IS IN THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 22N94W AT 10/0900
UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO 24N96W. A DISSIPATING
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W TO 24N86W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE W GULF W OF 86W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT
N BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO N GULF FRI
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT AND OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS
ALONG 75W AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. THE
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC WILL MOVE E MAINTAINING THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT THEN
STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER E CUBA TO NE
YUCATAN BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N48W. SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE NW ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION DRAPING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AT 10/0300 UTC NEAR 32N60W TO 29N631W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N68W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 32N AND INLAND
OVER S FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W SW ALONG 22N36W
INTO THE TROPICS TO 7N56W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NE OF THE
AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N63W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC LATER TODAY AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
E WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE FRI. A SECOND FRONT EMERGES
OFF NE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY
SAT MORNING AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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