[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032312
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN
GUINEA AT 9N13W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W ALONG
4N30W 2N38W 2N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY FROM A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER WEST VIRGINIA PROVIDING E-SE FLOW OF
15-20 KTS OVER THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WRN GULF ALONG 93W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA E
OF 91W WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 26N88W 23N89W. DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE AREA W OF
91W MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE SAME
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 1800 UTC
TOMORROW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC
AND ERN CONUS. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT TRADEWIND
FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
BASIN...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WRN
GULF AND DOWN CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 81W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND
FLOW. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 32N59W 28N67W 27N75W
DISSIPATING TO 27N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD
OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NW ATLC S OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND
ACROSS THE FAR ERN CONUS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG 27N55W TO 21N58W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN ITS VICINITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL N OF
THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 37W PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 18N TO THE AFRICAN COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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