[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N16W TO 02N30W TO 02N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 92W FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO A BASE IN THE SW
GULF NEAR 19N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF THE
TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AS E-SE FLOW PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N76W. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SOME AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF
AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER
PANAMA. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 77W TO OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA. EASTERLY TRADES
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W TO 78W AND
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 14 FT. EAST OF 70W...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS VERY LITTLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 10N61W TO BEYOND 20N70W. WITH THIS
OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN
FAIR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM TRINIDAD
IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N61W NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND
32N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N54W THEN W-SW ALONG 28N60W TO 26N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
27N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DUE
TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 21N59W TO 27N55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY A 1042 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 47N06W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE HIGH TO 40N20W SW TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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