[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
1N32W 2N40W 2N45W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
1W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE JUST S OF TAMPA TO 28N86W
IN THE NE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED
BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER W PENNSYLVANIA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING
OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF 93W SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE W
GULF S OF 26N W OF 95W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO AMPLIFYING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS W CUBA TO OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 92W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OFF E
COAST EARLY SAT THEN INTO W/CENTRAL ATLC SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM NEW
ORLEANS TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY SUN MORNING BRIEFLY STALLING
THEN MOVE SE AND STALL AGAIN FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF
CAMPECHE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE HIGHER PRESSURE
OVER THE W ATLC AND E U.S. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA NW ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS MAINLY S OF 20N W OF 84W AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF 80W. THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN COMPLIMENTS OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT SE INTO W/CENTRAL ATLC AND ESTABLISH
NARROW WEAKENED RIDGE ALONG 29N BY SUN THEN WEAKEN FURTHER MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS TO OVER THE W ATLC W OF 55W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE NW ATLC DRAPING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 28N71W WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO 27N77W PULLING UP STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM
SE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 77W. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC TO 20N BETWEEN
56W-55W WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N35W AND GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 42W-46W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N60W GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD
FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SUN.EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE W
ATLC BECOMING SHEARLINE ACROSS N BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA BY SUN
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE OFF THE E
CONUS COAST EARLY SAT TO SE OF BERMUDA AND ESTABLISH NARROW
RIDGE ALONG 29N BY SUN. FRONT WILL THEN BECOME A SHEARLINE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC BY MON THEN DISSIPATE AS NEXT COLD
FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA AND DISSIPATES BY TUE. THIRD COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS N GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT AND INTO FAR W
ATLC ON TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT OFF OF THE GEORGIA AND S CAROLINA COASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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