[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE
NRN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 2N25W...
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 3N40W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH E OF
32W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FAR SW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE SSE WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...GUSTING
TO 25 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
CARRYING A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN TEXAS PROVIDING ENOUGH
LIFTING AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THE N-CENTRAL GULF BASIN N OF 26N BETWEEN
85W-94W. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IN
THIS REGION WILL LINGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTERN
LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
BETWEEN 70W-80W...GENERATING AN EASTERLY WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG
THE COAST OF NRN COLOMBIA GUSTING TO GALE FORCE FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W...GENERATING SEAS 10-15 FEET IN THIS REGION. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...A FEW CLUSTERS OF WEAK SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FLOW N OF 14N...SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXCEPT FOR THE NW BASIN. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION INCREASING OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NRN NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC SW TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CUTS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT ALONG
32N45W SW TO 29N53W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY TO 26N68W
AND TO SHEAR LINE AXIS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS BARY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO DETACH FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT...FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE STATIONARY AND SHEAR LINE AXIS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANCHORED BY
A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NEAR 30N41W AND 35N27W. A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC DRAWING MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ REGION TO WEST AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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