[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 012341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W ALONG
1N26W 3N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 26W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS. DESPITE THE RIDGING...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE SE CORNER
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN FROM THE E PACIFIC IN SWLY FLOW AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA OVER LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS IS
HELPING SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO 29N95W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ALSO TO
THE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-91W. MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MAY FORM IN THE N CENTRAL GULF LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF FORMATION...EXPECT
MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC. THIS GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT TRADEWIND FLOW
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BESIDES THE STRONG WINDS...DRY AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN BRAZIL IS
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS.
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ESPECIALLY NOTED FROM
14N-17N. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLC ALONG 75W SUPPORTS A 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N73W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG 31N44W 28N56W 26N68W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 56W-67W. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 47W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE N OF THE BASIN
THAT CONNECTS WITH THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 48N18W TO
20N42W SUPPORTING A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N28W WHICH IS PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E ATLC. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 12N41W IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AS WELL AS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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