[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 4N25W...5N29W...
AND 2N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 51W AT THE
BORDERS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE EAST OF 6W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A....THAT INCLUDES THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR
30N84W...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 26N87W
24N90W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...ISOLATED MODERATE IN FLORIDA
FROM 28N TO 30N...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 28N83W 26N85W 23N89W 20N93W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO AND 17N97W...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
WEST OF THE 30N84W 20N97W COLD FRONT...AND THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
WIND SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
85W AND THE COLD FRONT...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 84W. THE FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD...COVERING
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 84W.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK
AT THE MOMENT.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N71W IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...THROUGH 9N76W COLOMBIA...9N80W PANAMA...BEYOND
8N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA...
AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 5N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AS INITIAL CONDITIONS...
AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 10 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO
26N51W AND 19N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS ALONG 31N53W 20N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N
TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 31N53W 20N52W SURFACE TROUGH
AND 80W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N64W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 31N53W 20N52W SURFACE
TROUGH. A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N22W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...A GALE WARNING TO START IN ABOUT 3 HOURS
TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 31N49W 16N43W
10N56W AS INITIAL CONDITIONS. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE
WEST OF 75W...BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FEET TO NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE
COLD FRONT...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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