[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 4N30W TO 3N40W TO NE
BRAZIL AT EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N81W TO N YUCATAN AT 21N90W TO THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
18N94W. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOTED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. 15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF THE
FRONT. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE GULF N OF FRONT WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT WITHIN 12 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO BE OUT OF THE GULF AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
TO BE IN PLACE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEANS OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
82W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E
HONDURAS AND E NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
77W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 11N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N80W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N63W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO 25N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN
41W-46W. FURTHER E...A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES
NEAR 36N18W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N48W SUPPORTING CONVECTION. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT OFF FLORIDA TO MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE W ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH TO ALSO MOVE QUICKLY E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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