[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N35W
2N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM
OF LINE FROM 5N27W TO 6N32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-26W AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E 5W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
ACROSS SE CONUS INTO THE GULF NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER TO 24N87W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/0900
UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY
ALONG 25N89W 21N96W THEN S INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS PRECEDING THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N85W
ALONG 24N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THIS FRONT
IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL REACH FROM S FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING THEN E OF THE GULF
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE
FRI AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE SAT MORNING AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
FAR SE GULF SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 70W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG
11N79W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO OVER PANAMA. THIS IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
CARIBBEAN THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
ALONG 70W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N65W. A NARROWING UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 48W-60W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W ALONG 27N52W TO 22N53W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E AND 60 NM W OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 48W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 43W-48W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N W OF
45W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT
300 NM SE OF THE AZORES. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA COAST TODAY WITH S TO SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N77W TO S FLORIDA THIS
EVENING AND FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU THEN WEAKEN FROM
32N60W TO E CUBA FRI. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
FLORIDA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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