[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N29W
1N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF TO 25N90W SUPPORTING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA
29N90W ALONG 23N95W THEN W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A
SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA TO NEAR 26N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE IN THE GULF FROM PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA TO 26N90W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT AND SQUALL LINE ARE
MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING THEN EXIT THE GULF WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT
MORNING AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE GULF
SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 72W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREA
BETWEEN 13N-18N E OF 86W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
ALONG 72W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N64W. A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-60W
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N52W
ALONG 27N56W TO 26N60W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC E OF 45W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 42W-55W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-58W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 300 NM SE OF THE AZORES. STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST WED AND WILL EXTEND
FROM 32N77W TO S FLORIDA WED EVENING FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA
THU THEN WEAKEN FROM 32N60W TO E CUBA FRI. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF FLORIDA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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