[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N25W
3N30W 3N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
16W-30W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-6W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-37W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 37W-50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA ROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 53W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST TO OVER THE E CONUS
NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA GIVING THE GULF NW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE TO 24N95W. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE N GULF
COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO
OVER THE N GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF
84W TO TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY THEN
STALL AND MOVE N. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUE EVENING AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WED EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF BY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W TO NEAR 18N74W. NE TO E
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W LEAVING THAT AREA UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 70W THROUGH
TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N58W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG 22N61W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N68W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 450 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W NARROWING
ALONG 20N23W TO 12N32W SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N17W TO 28N24W THEN
DISSIPATING TO 25N30W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT WILL MOVE E ALONG 30N. THE
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED.
THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED
EVENING AND FROM 32N63W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRI.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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