[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N17W TO 6N20W 2N30W
AND 1N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 100W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO
NOW IS ALONG 93W/94W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD AND GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE U.S.A. THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF 90W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EAST-TO-WEST TEXAS COLD FRONT THAT IS
ROUGHLY ALONG 30N BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND 101W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 24N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS 27N82W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND TO 26N93W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 20N97W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W...AT 30 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT...APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. IT HAS GIVEN WAY TO
A SITUATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND OTHER
AREAS OF DIFFERING DIRECTIONAL WIND REGIMES. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W 16N70W 11N77W AND 11N80W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 74W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF
14N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE
TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE...ACCORDING TO
THE BULLETIN...MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.56 OF AN INCH.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE
THAT IS ALONG 70W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO SOUTHERN
HAITI. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE FROM CUBA AND HISPANIOLA TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. SOME
OF THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER PARTS OF THE
BAHAMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
6N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT
IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BETWEEN 67W AND 80W...
AND CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
INITIAL CONDITIONS...20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 75W...
AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING
10 FEET FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT-STATIONARY FRONT IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 72W. SOME SIGNS OF
A CONTINUED TROUGH ARE ALONG 26N64W 18N61W. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 31N53W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 31N53W TO 26N70W...THROUGH 23N64W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
COAST ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE THAT IS ALONG 70W...ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO SOUTHERN HAITI. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 44W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 31N64W...TO 28N78W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 27N82W IN
FLORIDA..28N78W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 27N82W IN FLORIDA..

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO A 23N18W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N30W AND 7N35W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 29N20W 27N24W. THE
COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 27N24W TO 24N31W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N15W 29N18W 28N20W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
20W AND 31W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 28N41W 22N44W
AND TO 13N50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE ATLC STATIONARY FRONT 31N53W TO 20N69W.
TO THE W OF FRONT TO 75W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS...SEAS TO 16 FT
IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE E OF FRONT  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW TO N SWELL...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net