[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 6N12W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W
3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-26W AND FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 26W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
24N96W. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE N GULF COUPLED WITH
MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER THE N
GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA
AND TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF MON THEN STALL AND MOVE N
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST STATES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE GULF LATE TUE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THIS
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TUXPAN MEXICO TUE EVENING
AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING BEFORE
STALLING AND THEN DISSIPATING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF BY THU. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W TO NEAR 17N73W. NE TO E
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W LEAVING THAT AREA UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 70W THROUGH TUE
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TUE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N54W TO 30N56W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG 24N61W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 20N69W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA W OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W NARROWING ALONG 20N25W TO 12N32W
SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N21W TO 21N28W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT WILL MOVE E
ALONG 30N THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUE INTO WED
AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA
COAST LATE WED. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N79W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WED EVENING  AND FROM 32N63W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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