[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N12W TO 5N27W 8N41W TO 5N52W AT THE
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS PUSHING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N80W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA...
TO 16N78W...TO COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 14N
BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 82W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN IS
DIFFLUENT IN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...
AND BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND ITS
BORDER WITH COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N
TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 32N71W
TO 24N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 28N
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL-
TO-EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N40W TO
27N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N42W 28N50W 28N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15N NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
150 TO 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
30N42W 27N50W 26N60W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 23N32W 19N36W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N33W AND 17N41W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N35W 29N32W BEYOND 32N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 23N30W 27N27W BEYOND 32N25W...ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N33W 27N30W BEYOND 32N27W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N31W 17N38W 14N41W
12N61W 10N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N48W 11N49W 9N50W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N18W...TO 23N25W TO 13N35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
8N TO 9 FEET WITH RESPECT A 24N35W 13N54W COLD FRONT...
AND WITH RESPECT TO A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG
31N43W TO 29N64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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