[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N10W TO 5N14W 5N30W 6N38W TO 5N44W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N
BETWEEN 29W AND 33W AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
TO 26N89W TO 18N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS PUSHING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 13N TO 20N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W
AND THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.


PART OF THE 70W ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO
16N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 75W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
6N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND RAINSHOWERS ARE
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND ITS BORDER WITH COSTA RICA
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM
HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 32N TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 24N64W 20N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL-
TO-EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N37W TO
26N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N40W 27N50W 27N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N50W 26N60W.

THE SECOND TROUGH IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITH TIME...AND THE
WIND FLOW IS TENDING TO MOVE TOWARD THE THIRD TROUGH...WHICH
IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE THIRD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 26N30W TO
16N32W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N28W TO 28N30W 20N37W AND 16N41W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N29W 23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N32W
BEYOND 32N26W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W
AND 45W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N49W
13N50W 10N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N17W...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 26N22W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH
RESPECT TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N40W TO 27N60W...AND
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO
22N TO THE WEST OF 50W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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