[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ALONG 8N13W 6N25W 8N43W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME AT 5N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 26W-28W...
AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 39W-46W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR
IMAGERY OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER
OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS IN
24 HOURS DUE TO RETURN SURFACE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 21N80W TO N COLOMBIA
AT 11N75W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
61W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A 70-90 KT
JETSTREAM N OF HISPANIOLA IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
60W-70W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N46W TO 28N50W TO 27N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 31N31W 18N40W 15N47W DISSIPATING TO THE E
CARIBBEAN AT 14N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE FRONT N OF 18N BETWEEN 30W-36W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC S OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AT 31N17W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 40N43W ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE FRONTS TO
MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
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