[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 5N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W
TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. WHILE MOST OF THE HEAVY
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN ATLC AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENTERING THE EXTREME ERN GULF THROUGH THE S-WRN TIP
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW ESE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...
INCREASING TO UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS. COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGESTS THAT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL GULF.
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL GULF...THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA WITHIN 60-90 NM BETWEEN 76W-81W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A
FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE NE...N-CENTRAL...AND S-WRN BASINS. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 10-20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS OF CUBA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N79W TO 23N80W. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS S OF 29N W OF 74W. THIS
CONVECTION IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE SE TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THUS AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 40N65W. HOWEVER... A PAIR OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE FIRST ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 31N43W TO 25N45W. THE
SECOND ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N46W TO 13N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net