[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N19W TO 01N28W TO 01N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 15W-27W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 28W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 84W
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND FLORIDA
STRAITS THIS MORNING. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST
AND MIAMI FLORIDA INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING S OF
26N E OF 83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF 84W WITH E TO
SE WINDS OBSERVED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...STRONGEST OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LOOKING AHEAD...CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF...HOWEVER THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND UKMET KEEP A SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE PROGRESSING
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N82W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE LOW TO 14N87W. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 07N62W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND COUPLED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N79W TO 20N83W...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
74W-83W. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY ALOFT WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FRESH EASTERLIES AND
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED QUICK-PASSING LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS. MOST OF
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 22N82W AND IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND OVERCAST CLOUDINESS W OF
62W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 27N W OF 74W AND THAT POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 30N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...
THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 30N TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 69W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N37W AND SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 33N43W TO 22N44W TO 13N49W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOST PREVALENT EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM
15N-30N BETWEEN 27W-44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N35W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 35W TO 12N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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