[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N14W TO 02N26W TO 03N41W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 12W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND FLORIDA
STRAITS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI
INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING S OF 25N E OF 83W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST
NEAR 29N95W. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF 84W WITH E TO SE WINDS
OBSERVED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...STRONGEST OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOOKING
AHEAD...CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA THAT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF...HOWEVER THE NAM...ECMWF...AND
UKMET KEEP A SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE PROGRESSING WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N83W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE LOW TO 14N88W. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 08N62W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND COUPLED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N80W TO 17N81W...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 76W-82W.
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT
WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FRESH EASTERLIES AND A FEW ISOLATED
QUICK-PASSING LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND INTO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N83W AND IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND OVERCAST CLOUDINESS W OF
62W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 27N W OF 74W AND THAT POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 30N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...
THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 30N TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 67W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N40W AND SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 27N43W TO 16N44W TO 10N50W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOST PREVALENT EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM
15N-30N BETWEEN 27W-43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N33W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 33W TO 10N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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