[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 3N20W TO
2N30W TO 3N43W TO BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTIVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 10W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N.
10-20 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE STRONGEST
SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER
IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND SOUTH FLORIDA E OF
84W AND S OF 28N. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND TO CENTRAL CUBA TO
THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 25N78W 18N80W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 78W-82W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE CENTER
BETWEEN 75W-82W ENHANCING THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 44N33W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N50W TO 30N80W.
IN THE TROPICS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 17N43W TO 11N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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