[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA THAT IS NEAR 7N11W...TO 6N14W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N14W TO 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N5W 2N11W 4N19W
3N24W 4N31W 5N36W 5N44W...AND IN FRENCH GUIANA AND BRAZIL FROM
3N TO 5N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...THAT PASSED FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND BEYOND
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...HAS BROKEN DOWN WITH TIME. A SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM WESTERN CUBA
CURVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND BEYOND 30N80W INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N85W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
30N80W 24N84W 22N86W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM
A 90W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IN MEXICO AND IN TEXAS TO THE SOUTH
30N...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND
THE SEA HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF 87W
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...THAT PASSED FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND BEYOND
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...HAS BROKEN DOWN WITH TIME. A SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM WESTERN CUBA
CURVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND BEYOND 30N80W INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N85W.
NOTHING BUT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS MEANS THAT AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT IS
MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF COMPARATIVELY HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE COUNTRIES.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W IN THE WATER. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 78W/79W FROM 11N TO 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 77W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING
8 FEET TO THE EAST OF 82W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 45W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF
45W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE FORMING
NEAR 23N37W. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 6N42W TO 16N24W IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...BEYOND THE WESTERN SAHARA IN AFRICA. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 18N41W 14N45W 12N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N41W 16N45W 13N52W 12N57W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N64W 27N66W 24N67W. THIS
TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 67W. THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 67W
ARE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS THAT NOW
IS PART SHEAR AXIS FROM CUBA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 32N78W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT THREE AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET. ONE AREA IS TO THE WEST OF 72W.  THE OTHER
TWO AREAS ARE TO THE EAST OF 46W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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