[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 7N17W...
WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 21W-23W...AND FROM 4N-2S BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W
CUBA ALONG 27N81W 21N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-81W WHILE RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. 10-15 KT E-SE
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
W OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AND PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA
...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W ESPECIALLY OVER
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N34W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N60W. IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N44W
TO 26N45W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S FLORIDA IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 68W TO
INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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