[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N9W ALONG 4N14W TO 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES BRIEFLY S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-34W THEN ALONG
2N39W INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 50W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR E OF 14W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-26W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 1N30W TO 3N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO
MEXICO WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E GULF INTO THE W
ATLC. THE E GULF UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
12/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF
PALM BEACH INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS TO 28N88W WHERE IT
PULLS UP STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR
THE LOUISIANA BORDER. THIS IS RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE NW GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEDGE BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGHS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF
92W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE N GULF IN WAKE OF
THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
KENTUCKY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN N OF AREA
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF TODAY AND
FRI AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF AREA SAT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
OFF THE E COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N48W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA AND INTO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
AFTERNOON HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CAN PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA LATE FRI. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W TO OVER THE FAR
E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/1500 UTC
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N66W CONTINUING ALONG 26N74W WHERE IT
TURNS W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST S OF PALM BEACH. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT
W OF 76W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER KENTUCKY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
EXTENDING FROM 27N68W TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND CONTINUING N WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N65W TO
BEYOND 32N61W. ALTHOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SAME
AREA N OF 10N W OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 450 NM
WSW OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY FRI THEN SLOWLY
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVERT THE W ATLC BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS SAT REACHING NEAR 31N70W
LATE SUN THEN MEANDER ALONG 31N WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E AND W
ALONG 31N ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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