[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 1N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N24W ALONG
1N37W TO THE EQUATOR AT 42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2N47W.
VERY STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER W AFRICA S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. OVER WATER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 7W-15W...AND FROM
EQUATOR-2N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
90W SUPPORTING A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN CONUS
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA NEAR
27N81W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG
26N84W 27N87W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
COAST OF TEXAS AT 30N94W...AS OF 2100 UTC. NO SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE GULF BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS
OVER SW LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER THE GULF
WATERS WHERE ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS PRESENT AROUND THE
RIDGE TO THE N. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES THAT WIND
SPEEDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN INCREASING TO 15-20
KTS ACROSS THE FAR WRN PORTION ALONG THE SRN TEXAS COAST. RETURN
FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EWD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT IN SWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
N OF ERN SOUTH AMERICA IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND ERN CUBA
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA IN THE W ATLC.
AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN COVERING THE NRN GULF FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS STILL AFFECTING THE SMALL AREA THAT
IS RECEIVING RAIN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS
MUCH OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WITH SOME NEAR THE COASTLINES.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND BEGIN
TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA
GETS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC WHICH WILL
MOVE EWD IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 74W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N64W ALONG 26N73W
CROSSING THE NW BAHAMAS AT 27N78W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AT
27N80W...AS OF 2100 UTC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE AXIS. THE MAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FARTHER E
UNDER THE AREA OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 26N67W TO 21N70W IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE ACTIVITY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN
55W-65W...AS WELL AS ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA AND THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE N OF THE ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 53W SUPPORTING A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH
THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT
28N17W TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 11N33W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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