[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 3N16W TO 1N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N21W 1N28W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 2N25W 3N37W 4N45W 8N54W 9N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 24N82W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT WIND FLOW
ACCOMPANIES A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF AN OKLAHOMA-TO-TEXAS
DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IS ALONG 28N87W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 30N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INTO EASTERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N91W.
THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FOR A 24 HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 94W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. THE FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS IS EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N96W TO 21N89W. PLEASE REFER TO
THE MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF
THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL AREA OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W TO 16N80W TO 14N81W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N69W TO 25N70W 21N70W...STILL
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND
82W. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 77W.
THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FOR A FORECAST IN 30 HOURS OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 81W...INCLUDING
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3 AND
MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 24N82W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N72W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N69W TO 25N70W 21N70W...STILL JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N62W 28N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30N56W 25N63W
20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N
TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH MOROCCO TO 21N21W AND 11N39W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DETERMINE
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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