[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W
TO 4N18W TO 2N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN CONTINUES FROM 2N23W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
BRAZILIAN COAST NEAR 5S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND
17W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM SE AND 180 NM NW OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LIES ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 4S BETWEEN
28W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF ARE CARRYING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
PRIMARILY N OF 25N. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AMPLIFIES. 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES
CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON...TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FOUND AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
HIGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FROM 26N94W
TO 20N92W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVERGENCE OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET LIES ALONG 20N OVER
EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS N OF 17N TURN SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF 17N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LIES N OF 16N E OF
80W. THIS AREA COVERS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...EASTERN
CUBA...AND THE NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA AND IS COINCIDENT WITH THE
TAIL OF THE UPPER JET. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING PRECIPITATION TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM THE PENINSULA DE
LA GUAJIRA TO THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO 22N66W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS FOUND EAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN AND FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS FOUND IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N54W TO 21N62W AS WELL AS A STATIONARY FRONT WHOSE
SOUTHERN END LIES NEAR 31N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION LIES N OF 30N NEAR EACH OF THESE STATIONARY
FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA TO 22N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THIS TROUGH FROM 18N
TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W AS WELL AS OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ENERGY MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA AND RIDGING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE TWO STATIONARY
FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE AND A NEW COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE BAHAMAS
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR EASTERN HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 25N25W WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS LIE PRIMARILY WITHIN 300 NM OF THIS
LOW. THE 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CURRENTLY LIES NEAR 37N38W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH OF 32N ALONG 39W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT A FEW DEGREES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE AREA
DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER




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