[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W
ALONG 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
AT 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SI S OF
7N CROSSING THE EQUATOR TO 7S BETWEEN 27W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY DRY AIR IN MAINLY W-NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA
AT 29N92W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF ALONG 26N95W TO 21N92W IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
CLOUDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS
OVER THE NRN GULF. A WEAK FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NE GULF BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT IN ZONAL WLY FLOW IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM N OF HISPANIOLA AT
22N69W TO NE COLOMBIA AT 12N72W. AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO COVERS THE NRN CARIBBEAN AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FACTORS IS HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-78W...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED OVER ERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IS UNDER TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFT N. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN INCREASING THE CHANGE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NRN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO
SUPPORTS A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER E ALONG 32N55W TO
26N58W WHERE IT LIFTS N AS A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT TO 23N62W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WITH
STRONGER ACTIVITY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 22N69W IS ALSO
HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
THE WARM FRONT AND THE TROUGH FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 61W-69W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH AT 33N59W IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE TWO STATIONARY FRONTS
ACROSS THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH AT
37N38W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC FROM PORTUGAL ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
TO 20N29W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW
SPINNING NEAR 27N26W. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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