[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA THAT IS NEAR 11N15W TO 5N15W...TO
3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N19W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
31W...1N37W...AND THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 41W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF
6W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS 78W...FROM 32N TO THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N65W...TOWARD THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N92W OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 29N92W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N82W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N91W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 81W AND LAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 17N82W 25N91W
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF 25N EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS
LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2
BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 13N TO 18N...AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS. BROKEN
LOW MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO
18N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N82W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N91W. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
17N BETWEEN 81W AND LAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N60W
20N68W...ALONG 20N BETWEEN 68W AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CUBA
TO 76W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA
TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W.
THIS AREA COVERS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 75W
INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3
AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AND SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W AND 90W...EVENTUALLY CURVING
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND EASTWARD TO THE EAST OF
70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N66W AND
20N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N54W TO 23N60W. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
23N60W 20N68W...ALONG 20N BETWEEN 68W AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
CUBA TO 76W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA TO
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W...AND FROM
28N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N65W...BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND A 34N72W 31N74W
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 28N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N32W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES FROM 30N20W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N22W TO 25N25W. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD 24N23W AND DISSIPATE NEAR THERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N
TO 30N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N41W TO 25N49W AND 19N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W
FROM 10N TO 15N. BROKEN LOW MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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