[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 1N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
1N17W TO EQ20W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
LIBERIA FROM 6N-2N BETWEEN 5W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-2S BETWEEN 31W-35W... AND FROM 3N-EQ BETWEEN 35W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 4N-2S BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W PRODUCING
10-15 KT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. A THIN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH MOSTLY SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 20N64W TO N HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 15N W OF 68W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N82W TO 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AREA IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO PANAMA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF
GEORGIA ALONG 32N78W 31N81W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 29N
W OF 77W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N70W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO 22N60W TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
20N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT
FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 52W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 40N37W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO 25N43W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-80W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N25W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC LOW.
EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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