[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 1N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N17W
REACHING THE EQUATOR AT 20W AND CONTINUING ALONG IT THROUGH 31W
TO 1N42W AND BACK TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF LIBERIA FROM THE EQUATOR TO
6N BETWEEN 9W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
ALONG A LINE FROM 4N13W TO 4N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 96W. THIS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN GULF WHERE A
WEAK 1021 MB HIGH HAS FORMED S OF TEXAS AT 29N95W...AS OF 2100
UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 25N91W TO THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
21N87W CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 94W-97W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT WWD AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO 17N81W IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
AXIS...AS WELL AS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 82W-86W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT SKIMS THE NRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N IS ALSO
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND ERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRADEWIND FLOW. A
FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ELY FLOW
OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALOFT...MAINLY
ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NRN GULF FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE N TO 31N77W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 130 NM TO THE E.
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SECOND FRONT FARTHER E THAT HAS
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 32N53W 24N59W 20N65W DISSIPATING TO
20N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. A WEAK 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS WEDGED
BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS AT 28N68W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS. FARTHER E...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
46W LEADS TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE AT 37N37W...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 40N38W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC ALONG 40N10W TO
20N38W SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW AT 31N25W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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