[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO
2N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N16W...TO 1N18W 1N23W...2N32W...
AND 2N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE
EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE MEXICO RIDGE BLENDS INTO WESTERLY WIND
FLOW NEAR 90W...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TO FLORIDA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE
IN MEXICO AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 90W IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND 98W
IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...NEAR AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
23N87W...CURVING TO 28N88W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 18N81W 28N88W TROUGH EAST WINDS
20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF
22N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND SEA HEIGHTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT4 AND
MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST TO 19N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N87W.
A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 20N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
HAITI...TO 19N78W OFF THE COAST OF CUBA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W INCLUDING
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3 AND
MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND COSTA RICA...CURVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS
NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N66W AND
20N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 28N57W TO 24N61W. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
24N61W TO 20N70W...ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...TO 19N78W OFF
THE COAST OF CUBA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W 25N55W 22N60W 20N70W...NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 32N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N32W TO 22N35W AND
17N38W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N15W. THE
EARLIER TROUGH WITH THIS LOW CENTER DISSIPATED. A SEPARATE
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N23W. THIS LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 29N22W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 20W AND
30W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 27N46W AND 21N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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