[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 7N15W AND 1N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N17W...THROUGH THE
EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 1S22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG
28W...CURVING THROUGH THE EQUATOR A THIRD TIME ALONG 45W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE
EAST OF 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE MEXICO RIDGE BLENDS INTO WESTERLY WIND
FLOW NEAR 90W...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TO FLORIDA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE
IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 90W IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA
AND 98W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...NEAR AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 19N81W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N87W...CURVING TO 29N88W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF 27N WINDS
20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FT. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH TO 80W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FEET IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS
FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL
BORDER OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 19N81W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N87W. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 20N70W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...TO 19N78W OFF
THE COAST OF CUBA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND
BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W
INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE
MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND COSTA RICA...CURVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS
NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N66W AND
20N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 31N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N55W TO
25N60W AND 22N65W. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N65W
TO 20N70W...ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI...TO 19N78W OFF THE COAST OF
CUBA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 25N57W 22N61W 20N70W...NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N23W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N31W TO 22N38W AND 16N40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N15W...THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 21N22W.
A SEPARATE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N21W. THIS LOW
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 30N23W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N50W AND 23N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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