[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG TO EQUATOR TO 32W THEN
TO 02N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 10W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DOMINATE ALOFT OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS ON IN THE NORTHERN GULF
ALONG 29N. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N87W TO 26N87W TO
24N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
85W-88W THAT CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FARTHER EAST JUST WEST OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 82W-84W. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST TO
EAST SURFACE WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE BASIN WITH
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GULF FROM 19N-27N WEST OF 92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AND PROVIDE MOSTLY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS COVERING THE BASIN WEST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA
TO EASTERN HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...EXAMINING THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR AND
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR. MOST ONGOING CONVECTION IS LAND-BASED
AND DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF CUBA. ELSEWHERE...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH NE TRADES IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...HIGHEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THIS QUIET PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 32N58W TO 23N72W. DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED
N OF 23N BETWEEN 62W-80W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE REGION FROM 32N55W TO 25N60W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N...
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FOCUSED ON A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N79W WITH 10 TO 20 KT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO
22N44W. FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 31N15W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE
LOW TO 28N16W TO 23N21W TO 21N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

HUFFMAN




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