[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 6N15W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 3N26W 3N34W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO BRAZIL NEAR
2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-31W AND FROM
1N-7N BETWEEN 42W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS FLOW ALOFT IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NW GULF. A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH INLAND OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AND S
TEXAS FROM 23N-27N W OF 96W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT
THEN WEAKEN SOME MON AND TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE N GULF. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD S ACROSS THE
GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DRAPES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE MAINLAND OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
THE NE TIP OF YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE
AREA SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN INTO SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N
OF THE AREA SUN AND ALLOW FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA SUN NIGHT AND DIMINISHING ON MON. E
TRADES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 58W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N59W ALONG
24N64W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 20N74W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MAINLAND OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
250 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE
AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF 43W
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 29N17W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N18W
ALONG 21N30W TO 25N41W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 26N23W TO 25N31W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
DRIFT SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING FROM 32N54W TO E CUBA LATE
SUN AND MON AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG 29N. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION. THIS FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 32N75W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON AND
FROM 32N72W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net