[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N14W ALONG 7N16W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 4N29W 2N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W INTO BRAZIL NEAR
2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 3W-7W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 10W-20W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-27W AND WITHIN
120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF THE EQUATOR E
OF 54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS FLOW ALOFT IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NW GULF. A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH INLAND OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE MEXICO AND E TEXAS INTO THE W
GULF S OF 28N W OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN SOME
MON AND TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NE WATERS.
STRONGER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD S ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LATE TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DRAPES A STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA TO 20N77W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 21N83W TO THE NE TIP OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE
AREA SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N OF THE
AREA TODAY AND ALLOW FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND LEE OF CUBA TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING ON MON. E TRADES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN MON
THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 21N W OF 57W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W ALONG
24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH N OF
THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 16N E OF 42W
SUPPORTING A WEAK 1009 MB LOW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N17W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 32N14W
THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 25N23W TO 25N29W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LITTLE TO THE SE TODAY AND STALL AS RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG 29N. A SECOND WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE
WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TONIGHT AND MON
BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING N. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N75W TO NE FLORIDA BY WED MORNING AND
FROM 31N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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