[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N19W TO 02N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DOMINATE ALOFT OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1024
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. THE
HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN MEXICO
COAST NEAR 20N97W WITH NE TO E SURFACE WINDS IN THE THE RANGE OF
10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE RIDGING LINGERS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS
THE BASIN WEST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS.
OTHERWISE...EXAMINING THE LATEST AND LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF THE DAY...AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR AND
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR. A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N78W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER
THOSE APPEAR TIED TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. DUE TO
THE FRONTAL TROUGHING NORTH OF THE BASIN OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION...THE EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT.
THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DOMINATE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHWARD TO 26N WITH DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE NOTED N OF
26N BETWEEN 65W-85W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS ANALYZED INTO THE REGION FROM 32N62W TO 24N70W TO EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 21N. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH 15 TO 20 KT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST OF
THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 32N45W TO 22N50W. FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN
OCCLUDED 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N20W AND EXTENDS AN
OCCLUSION FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N17W TO 26N20W...THEN
CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 23N30W TO 25N41W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH THIS BOUNDARY...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

HUFFMAN



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