[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 1N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W. A LINE OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DETACHES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 30W
EXTENDING TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WATERS...LEAVING THE GULF
WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY...SHIP...AND
OIL PLATFORM DATA SHOWS MOSTLY ENE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS THAT IS EXTENDING S OVER THE GULF...ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER SRN OHIO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NRN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TOMORROW THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
FROM SE TO NW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FLOW AROUND THE AXIS
IS ADVECTING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF A COLD MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC EXTENDS WSW INTO
THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE NRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AXIS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINING A TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN INTO SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SUN AND ALLOW FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
AS IT ENTERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TI 25 KT
ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/180 NM SE OF THE FRONT
N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N29W.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 29N23W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
AROUND THE ERN AND SRN SEMI CIRCLE OF THE LOW CONTINUING W AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG 24N25W 24N33W 25N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY BY
MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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