[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER LIBERIA NEAR 11N140W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W 2N31W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W INTO BRAZIL NEAR
2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM
OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM N AND 120 NM
S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 23W-29W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N
BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W TO 24N87W. OTHERWISE THE GULF
IS DOMINATED BY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF S OF 26N W OF 92W TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF IN
WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUN THROUGH
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR 23N80W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N85W TO NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN INTO
SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SUN AND ALLOW FRESH
NE FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA SUN NIGHT
AND DIMINISHING ON MON. E TRADES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN MON
THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 62W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W
ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N81W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ARE W OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N66W ALONG 26N71W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF
THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 500 NM
W OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E
OF 35W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N27W WITH A
DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
30N24W WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING ALONG 29N21W TO 25N29W TO
27N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT.
W ATLC COLD FRONT STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N58W TO 26N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BY LATE TODAY BEFORE STALLING ALONG 22N E OF 65W SUN INTO MON AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 29N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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